2023 COLA Increase: Social Security & VA Disability Prediction
The 2023 cost-of-living adjustment is final: benefits rose 8.7% effective December 2022 payments (received January 2023). The figures below come from the official CPI-W record used by the Social Security Administration.
Has the 2023 COLA increase been leaked?
No — and it cannot be. There is nothing to leak. The COLA is not decided in a meeting or drafted in advance; it is arithmetic performed on CPI-W index values that the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes on a fixed public schedule. Until the September CPI-W release, not even the Social Security Administration knows the number, because the final input does not exist yet.
Any post claiming a leaked, confidential, or "insider" COLA figure is either repackaging a public projection or inventing a number. What you can do is watch the same inputs SSA uses, month by month, and see the estimate tighten as each CPI-W release lands. That is exactly what this page shows.
- Series usedCPI-W, CWUR0000SA0
- Months that decide itJuly, August, September
- AnnouncedMid-October, by SSA
How the 2023 COLA was calculated
- COLA applied
- 8.7%
- Prior Q3 average
- —
- Measured Q3 average
- —
Common questions about the 2023 increase
When is the 2023 COLA announced?
SSA announces it in mid-October, on the same morning the BLS publishes the September CPI report. The increase then applies to December 2022 benefits, which arrive in January 2023.
Do veterans get the same increase?
Yes. VA disability compensation, DIC and Special Monthly Compensation are adjusted by the same percentage as Social Security, so a 2023 Social Security COLA of a given size means the same percentage rise in VA rates.
Can the 2023 COLA be zero?
Yes. If the third-quarter CPI-W average does not exceed the prior comparison quarter, the COLA is 0.0% and benefits stay flat — that happened in 2010, 2011 and 2016. Benefits are never reduced.
Why do published predictions differ?
Because they differ only in how they guess the unreleased months. Once all three Q3 readings are out, every honest calculation lands on the same number.
How the COLA Is Calculated
Social Security and VA disability increases are set by law using the CPI-W — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. The Social Security Administration averages the CPI-W for July, August and September, then compares that average with the same third-quarter average from the most recent year that produced a COLA. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, becomes the COLA. If prices fall, the COLA is 0.0% — benefits are never reduced.
- CPI-W, not CPI-U. Only the CPI-W series is used for benefit adjustments, and it is not seasonally adjusted.
- Same COLA for VA. VA disability compensation is adjusted by the identical percentage each December 1st payment cycle.
- Announced in October. The SSA publishes the official figure once September CPI-W data are released.
- Comparison year matters. When a year produces a 0.0% COLA, the comparison base carries forward to the last year with an increase.
Official Sources
- BLS — CPI-W series CWUR0000SA0Monthly Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
- SSA — Cost-of-Living Adjustment informationOfficial COLA announcements and historical adjustments
- VA — Veterans compensation ratesCurrent monthly disability compensation rate tables
- BLS — CPI release schedulePublication dates for each monthly CPI report
Disclaimer
All figures shown before the official announcement are projections based on published CPI-W data and may differ from the final adjustment. Estimated and forecasted values are not official government figures.
This website is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by the Social Security Administration, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or any other U.S. government agency. Always confirm benefit amounts with the agency that pays them.