2027 COLA Increase: Social Security & VA Disability Prediction
The 2027 COLA is not final yet. It is set by one formula only: the change in the third-quarter (July, August, September) average of the CPI-W index against the same quarter of the last year that produced a COLA. July has been published, leaving 2 months to go.
Has the 2027 COLA increase been leaked?
No — and it cannot be. There is nothing to leak. The COLA is not decided in a meeting or drafted in advance; it is arithmetic performed on CPI-W index values that the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes on a fixed public schedule. Until the September CPI-W release, not even the Social Security Administration knows the number, because the final input does not exist yet.
Any post claiming a leaked, confidential, or "insider" COLA figure is either repackaging a public projection or inventing a number. What you can do is watch the same inputs SSA uses, month by month, and see the estimate tighten as each CPI-W release lands. That is exactly what this page shows.
- Series usedCPI-W, CWUR0000SA0
- Months that decide itJuly, August, September
- AnnouncedMid-October, by SSA
Based on currently available official CPI-W data. This is an estimate. The official COLA is announced by the Social Security Administration after third-quarter CPI-W data are available.
July CPI-W released. August and September still pending.
Q3 CPI-W math
- Previous Q3 avg (2025)
- 317.265
- Current Q3 avg (2026)
- 327.9843.4%
- Difference
- +10.72 idx
- Estimated COLA
- 3.4%
- Official Q3 months available
- 1 of 3
Estimated 2027 COLA
3.4%
Medium Confidence
Latest CPI-W
327.104
0.01%July 2026
Current Q3 avg
327.984
July + August + September ÷ 3
Previous Q3 avg
317.265
2025 comparison year
Next CPI-W release
Sep 12
August 2026 data due
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last checked 2026-09-02T08:36:39.928Z.
Government Formula Estimate
Released data onlyUses only CPI-W months already published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — 1 of 3 third-quarter months available.
Forecasted COLA
ProjectionFills missing July, August or September values using recent CPI-W momentum: monthly change 0.01%, 3-month trend 0.06%/mo, 6-month trend 0.48%/mo, year-over-year 3.4%.
COLA CPI-W Tracker
317.265 → 327.984| Month | 2025 CPI-W | 2026 CPI-W | Monthly change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July | 316.349 | 327.104 | 3.40% | Actual |
| August | 317.306 | 327.983 | 3.37% | Estimated |
| September | 318.139 | 328.865 | 3.37% | Estimated |
| Previous Q3 Average (2025) | 317.265 | |||
| Current Q3 Average (2026) | 327.984 | |||
Social Security COLA Calculator
Estimated 3.4% COLAEnter your gross benefit before Medicare premiums or withholding.
VA Disability COLA Calculator
Estimated 3.4% COLAVA disability compensation receives the same COLA as Social Security.
Common questions about the 2027 increase
When is the 2027 COLA announced?
SSA announces it in mid-October of 2026, on the same morning the BLS publishes the September CPI report. The increase then applies to December 2026 benefits, which arrive in January 2027.
Do veterans get the same increase?
Yes. VA disability compensation, DIC and Special Monthly Compensation are adjusted by the same percentage as Social Security, so a 2027 Social Security COLA of a given size means the same percentage rise in VA rates.
Can the 2027 COLA be zero?
Yes. If the third-quarter CPI-W average does not exceed the prior comparison quarter, the COLA is 0.0% and benefits stay flat — that happened in 2010, 2011 and 2016. Benefits are never reduced.
Why do published predictions differ?
Because they differ only in how they guess the unreleased months. Once all three Q3 readings are out, every honest calculation lands on the same number.
How the COLA Is Calculated
Social Security and VA disability increases are set by law using the CPI-W — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. The Social Security Administration averages the CPI-W for July, August and September, then compares that average with the same third-quarter average from the most recent year that produced a COLA. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, becomes the COLA. If prices fall, the COLA is 0.0% — benefits are never reduced.
- CPI-W, not CPI-U. Only the CPI-W series is used for benefit adjustments, and it is not seasonally adjusted.
- Same COLA for VA. VA disability compensation is adjusted by the identical percentage each December 1st payment cycle.
- Announced in October. The SSA publishes the official figure once September CPI-W data are released.
- Comparison year matters. When a year produces a 0.0% COLA, the comparison base carries forward to the last year with an increase.
Official Sources
- BLS — CPI-W series CWUR0000SA0Monthly Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
- SSA — Cost-of-Living Adjustment informationOfficial COLA announcements and historical adjustments
- VA — Veterans compensation ratesCurrent monthly disability compensation rate tables
- BLS — CPI release schedulePublication dates for each monthly CPI report
Disclaimer
All figures shown before the official announcement are projections based on published CPI-W data and may differ from the final adjustment. Estimated and forecasted values are not official government figures.
This website is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by the Social Security Administration, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or any other U.S. government agency. Always confirm benefit amounts with the agency that pays them.